Tuesday, February 26, 2019

The Dow Jones Today Will Extend Its Hot Streak as Trade Tensions Ease

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The Dow Jones today will look to extend its nine-week winning streak when the bell opens on Monday.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump decided to extend a key deadline on tariffs. That news has Dow Futures up 159 points before the bell Monday. The uptick comes after Chinese stocks saw their best one-day performance in three years.

But don't get too comfortable. We'll break down President Trump's announcement below.

Here are the numbers from Friday for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq:

Index Previous Close Point Change Percentage Change
Dow Jones 26,031.81 +181.18 +0.70%
S&P 500 2,792.67 +17.79 +0.64%
Nasdaq 7,527.54 +67.84 +0.91%

Now, here's a closer look at today's Money Morning insight, the most important market events, and stocks to watch.

The Top Stock Market Stories for Monday Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) took a $4 billion hit after Kraft Heinz Co. (NYSE: KHC) offered a dismal earnings report last week. Buffett says that his company did not overpay for Kraft when it bid on the company and combined it with Heinz. Buffett conducted an interview with CNBC over the weekend that offered his take on current market conditions. He said that Berkshire was very close to making a "very large acquisition" a few months ago. Buffett would not disclose which company his firm considered nor would he say what caused his decision. "I'll give you a hint," he said. "It's on the planet." Berkshire now has a cash pile worth $112 billion.

President Trump announced over the weekend that his administration will extend its March 1 deadline to reach a new deal on trade with China. The president cited "substantial progress" between the United States and China. According to multiple reports, Trump is considering a meeting at his Florida golf club with Chinese President Xi Jinping in late March. Trump met with the nation's vice premier last week as the countries tried to overcome differences over technology transfers and Chinese support for its currency. China has already committed to buying $1.2 trillion in U.S. goods to help alleviate the massive trade deficit between the two countries. But there are still no specifics from the administration on how long the deadline will be extended for. Plus, the president is holding a second sit-down talk with North Korea this week that could ratchet up uncertainty, especially if the meeting ends poorly. In deal news, shares of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) popped more than 17% in pre-market hours. The company has sold its biopharma business for $21.4 billion to Danaher. The company will use the proceeds to cut down on leverage and bolster its balance sheet. Money Morning Insight of the Day

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Stocks to Watch Today: KHC, HD, JWN, M, AAPL Kraft Heinz Co. (NYSE: KHC) is still licking its wounds after an abysmal earnings report on Thursday and a weak 2019 outlook. The consumer goods giant is looking to reshape its business as consumer tastes continue to evolve. According to reports, the firm – backed heavily by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) – is considering a deal to sell its Maxwell House brand. Warren Buffett is also affecting shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Although AAPL stock added 0.4% in pre-market hours, Buffett said he would not purchase more shares of the company stock at these levels. However, should AAPL stock pull back in the near future, the "Oracle of Omaha" would consider purchasing more. Earnings season may be winding down, but concerns about the U.S. brick-and-mortar retail industry are always high. This week, Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) will report earnings from the holiday quarter. Look for earnings reports from American States Water Co. (NYSE: AWR), Chatham Lodging Trust (NYSE: CLDT), EPR Properties (NYSE: EPR), Etsy Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY), Life Storage Inc. (NYSE: LSI), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), Oneok Inc. (NYSE: OKE), Potbelly Corp. (NASDAQ: PBPB), Preferred Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE: APTS), Rent-A-Center Inc. (NASDAQ: RCII), Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE: SHAK), and Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC).

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Monday, February 25, 2019

Insider Selling: Rambus Inc. (RMBS) Director Sells 20,000 Shares of Stock

Rambus Inc. (NASDAQ:RMBS) Director David A. Shrigley sold 20,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, February 20th. The stock was sold at an average price of $10.45, for a total value of $209,000.00. Following the sale, the director now owns 42,155 shares in the company, valued at approximately $440,519.75. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink.

Shares of NASDAQ RMBS traded up $0.01 during trading on Thursday, reaching $10.51. The company had a trading volume of 695,000 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,209,477. Rambus Inc. has a 12 month low of $7.17 and a 12 month high of $14.30. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.12 billion, a PE ratio of 13.83, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.38 and a beta of 0.74. The company has a current ratio of 7.62, a quick ratio of 7.52 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18.

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Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) last released its quarterly earnings results on Monday, January 28th. The semiconductor company reported $0.28 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.21 by $0.07. Rambus had a positive return on equity of 8.05% and a negative net margin of 28.74%. The firm had revenue of $102.00 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $102.00 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company posted $0.19 EPS. The business’s revenue was up .0% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, analysts forecast that Rambus Inc. will post 0.75 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. BlackRock Inc. grew its position in shares of Rambus by 1.8% in the 4th quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 15,874,559 shares of the semiconductor company’s stock valued at $121,759,000 after buying an additional 275,815 shares during the last quarter. Vanguard Group Inc grew its position in shares of Rambus by 2.6% in the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc now owns 10,936,938 shares of the semiconductor company’s stock valued at $119,321,000 after buying an additional 277,298 shares during the last quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. grew its position in shares of Rambus by 2.6% in the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 10,936,938 shares of the semiconductor company’s stock valued at $119,321,000 after buying an additional 277,298 shares during the last quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP grew its position in shares of Rambus by 6.0% in the 4th quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 5,909,106 shares of the semiconductor company’s stock valued at $45,323,000 after buying an additional 333,048 shares during the last quarter. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. grew its position in shares of Rambus by 95.5% in the 3rd quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co. now owns 3,950,490 shares of the semiconductor company’s stock valued at $43,099,000 after buying an additional 1,929,517 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 76.97% of the company’s stock.

A number of equities research analysts recently weighed in on RMBS shares. Zacks Investment Research upgraded Rambus from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $10.00 price objective on the stock in a research report on Saturday, February 2nd. TheStreet lowered Rambus from a “c-” rating to a “d” rating in a research report on Tuesday, October 30th. Deutsche Bank reduced their price target on Rambus from $16.00 to $13.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, October 30th. ValuEngine upgraded Rambus from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Monday, February 4th. Finally, BidaskClub upgraded Rambus from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Friday, February 8th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, two have issued a hold rating and three have given a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $13.00.

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Rambus Company Profile

Rambus Inc provides semiconductor products in South Korea and internationally. The company operates through Memory and Interfaces, Security, and Other segments. It focuses on the design, development, and manufacturing through partnerships and licensing of technology and solutions related to memory and interfaces; and design, development, deployment, and licensing of technologies for chip, system and in-field application security, anti-counterfeiting, smart ticketing, and mobile payments.

Featured Article: Book Value Per Share – BVPS

Saturday, February 23, 2019

Johnson & Johnson Faces More Overhang From Talc and Asbestos Woes

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) remains a top member of the Dow Jones industrial average and a company that keeps raising its dividend year after year. And the company still cannot escape the shadow of its Johnson’s Baby Powder brand talc and asbestos lawsuits and overhang.

Johnson & Johnson released its 2018 annual report on Wednesday, and the company disclosed shareholder suits, as well as newer inquiries from the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. For the record, the company has shown that decades of testing showed that the use of baby powder was safe and asbestos-free. It also has consistently maintained that its baby powder does not cause cancer.

The history of talc and asbestos cases against Johnson & Johnson is mixed. The company has won some suits that went to trial. It also faced a $4.7 billion award against it last summer in a case representing 22 women and their families. Johnson & Johnson is still appealing the verdict.

At issue is that with environmental cases of this sort, including aspects of asbestos cases, there is no time limit and quantifying the ultimate financial risk is nearly impossible. It is quite possible that the lifetime’s worth of sales of Johnson’s Baby Powder could be far lower than total damages over time if these cases end up going against the company.

The annual report for 2018 said of the newer disclosures:

In January 2019, two ERISA class action lawsuits were filed by participants in the Johnson & Johnson Savings Plan against Johnson & Johnson, its Pension and Benefits Committee, and certain named officers in the United States District Court for the District of New Jersey, alleging that the defendants breached their fiduciary duties by offering Johnson & Johnson stock as a Johnson & Johnson Savings Plan investment option when it was imprudent to do so because of failures to disclose alleged asbestos contamination in body powders containing talc, primarily JOHNSON'S® Baby Powder. Plaintiffs are seeking damages and injunctive relief.

Each of these matters will be adjudicated in conjunction with the multi-district litigation referenced in the prior paragraph. In addition, the Company has received preliminary inquiries and subpoenas to produce documents regarding these matters from Senator Murray, a member of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company is cooperating with these government inquiries and will be producing documents in response.

It is also important to compare the potential financial exposure relative to the company’s broader size. Johnson & Johnson as a whole had sales of more than $81 billion, with operating income of more than $21 billion and net income of more than $15 billion, in 2018 alone. Its market cap is $365 billion.

After closing up 0.5% at $136.53 on Wednesday, its shares were indicated down 2.1% at $133.50 on Thursday’s early-bird indications. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $118.62 to $148.99, and the consensus analyst target price is $144.22.

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Friday, February 22, 2019

3 Reasons Alphabet Stock Is a Buy

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) is the parent company to a household name in technology: Google. Many of us rely on the company's multitude of services, ranging from simple web searches to Gmail to Google Maps. 

The company makes a veritable mint from the ad revenue that it generates from these services, pulling in $136.8 billion in revenue and an eye-popping $30.7 billion in net income in 2018. After all, if a large portion of the world's population relies on its suite of services, advertisers are going to be quite keen to get those eyeballs looking at their ads.

A Google Doodles book.

Image source: Alphabet.

To that end, I'd like to go over three reasons why Alphabet stock is a buy today. 

Investing in the future

Alphabet's Google has a reputation for attracting and retaining many of the industry's best technical minds -- and compensating them extremely well, too. That reputation is well-deserved and backed by the company's massive (and growing) investments in research and development spending.

In 2018, the company laid down $21.4 billion in research and development -- a figure that was up significantly from $16.6 billion in the prior year. According to Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat, the company intends to keep growing its operating expenses in 2019, and that growth "will remain concentrated in R&D."

Although rising operating expenses serve to ding near-term profitability, I'm actually very encouraged that Alphabet continues to invest heavily in its future. The company's current success is undoubtedly the product of investment decisions that management made years ago, and my expectation is that its investments today will ensure that it builds on that success in the coming years. 

Strong core business

Although Alphabet gets a lot of press for some of the things that it does outside of its core advertising business, such as consumer hardware and self-driving cars, it's usually much better for a company's shareholders if it can pursue those growth opportunities with the comfort and stability afforded to it by a robust core business.

The good news for Alphabet's shareholders is that the company's core business remains extremely strong.

Last quarter, Alphabet saw its sales rise 22% year over year (23% in constant currency), with operating income up 7% to $8.2 billion. Underpinning that growth was 19.9% surge in the company's core advertising revenue (83.1% of total revenue), as well as a nearly 31% rise in the company's "Google other revenues" (which includes the company's consumer hardware sales). 

The strength in the core business not only fuels revenue and profit growth for shareholders today, but it should continue to afford the company significant latitude to make big bets in other areas in the future -- some of which could pay off hugely. 

Robust growth prospects

According to analyst consensus, Alphabet's growth is set to continue to be strong over the next couple of years. For its fiscal 2019, analysts expect the company to see revenue rise to $163.7 billion -- up 19.6% year over year. Earnings per share (EPS) is also set to surge to $46.97, up from $43.70 in the same period a year ago, representing 7.5% growth. In the year after that, revenue is expected to rise 17.8% to $192.8 billion, with EPS surging 16.5% to $54.72. 

Now, those estimates could either prove too conservative or too aggressive, but if we assume that Alphabet's growth over the next two years comes in roughly as analysts expect, then the company's prospects look really solid.

It's a rare and wonderful breed of business that can consistently deliver double-digit revenue growth from a baseline as large as Alphabet's, and yet the company looks set to continue to do that in the coming years. 

Investor takeaway

Alphabet is an incredible business that appears to have a sharp leadership team at the top calling the shots. The core business is in great shape and the company's growth opportunities -- both within the core segment and beyond -- appear robust, cultivated by years of diligent investments in the right markets and in bringing aboard some of the industry's best talent.

If you're looking for the financial stability of a very large company coupled with the growth prospects of a much smaller, more nimble company, Alphabet sure seems to fit the bill.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Top 5 Insurance Stocks To Invest In Right Now

tags:AIG,WRB,PRU,TOP,PFG,

Pitcairn Co. acquired a new position in shares of Delek US Holdings Inc (NYSE:DK) during the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund acquired 4,985 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock, valued at approximately $250,000.

A number of other large investors have also bought and sold shares of the stock. First Midwest Bank Trust Division boosted its stake in Delek US by 13.2% during the second quarter. First Midwest Bank Trust Division now owns 11,345 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $569,000 after acquiring an additional 1,322 shares in the last quarter. Russell Investments Group Ltd. lifted its stake in shares of Delek US by 20.7% in the first quarter. Russell Investments Group Ltd. now owns 7,800 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $317,000 after buying an additional 1,337 shares in the last quarter. The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company lifted its stake in shares of Delek US by 2.3% in the first quarter. The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company now owns 60,596 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $2,466,000 after buying an additional 1,387 shares in the last quarter. Amalgamated Bank lifted its stake in shares of Delek US by 20.1% in the second quarter. Amalgamated Bank now owns 12,667 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $636,000 after buying an additional 2,117 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Macquarie Group Ltd. lifted its stake in shares of Delek US by 21.6% in the fourth quarter. Macquarie Group Ltd. now owns 12,400 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock worth $433,000 after buying an additional 2,200 shares in the last quarter. 98.58% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Top 5 Insurance Stocks To Invest In Right Now: American International Group Inc.(AIG)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) announced a quarterly dividend on Thursday, August 2nd, RTT News reports. Stockholders of record on Monday, September 17th will be paid a dividend of 0.32 per share by the insurance provider on Friday, September 28th. This represents a $1.28 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.32%.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    American International Group (NYSE:AIG)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by stock analysts at Wells Fargo & Co in a research note issued to investors on Wednesday. They presently have a $54.00 target price on the insurance provider’s stock. Wells Fargo & Co‘s price target indicates a potential upside of 33.12% from the stock’s current price.

  • [By Motley Fool Transcribing]

    American International Group (NYSE:AIG) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 14, 2019 8:00 a.m. ET

    Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

    Operator 

Top 5 Insurance Stocks To Invest In Right Now: W.R. Berkley Corporation(WRB)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Standard Life Aberdeen plc increased its stake in shares of W. R. Berkley Corp (NYSE:WRB) by 56.6% in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 15,374 shares of the insurance provider’s stock after purchasing an additional 5,555 shares during the period. Standard Life Aberdeen plc’s holdings in W. R. Berkley were worth $1,113,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    W. R. Berkley Corp (NYSE:WRB) has received a consensus rating of “Hold” from the eleven brokerages that are presently covering the stock, Marketbeat Ratings reports. Five analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, five have assigned a hold rating and one has given a buy rating to the company. The average 12-month target price among brokers that have updated their coverage on the stock in the last year is $69.33.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on W. R. Berkley (WRB)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

Top 5 Insurance Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Prudential Financial Inc.(PRU)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Redpoint Investment Management Pty Ltd decreased its position in shares of Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:PRU) by 21.9% during the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 35,233 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 9,907 shares during the quarter. Redpoint Investment Management Pty Ltd’s holdings in Prudential Financial were worth $3,295,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    American Equity Investment Life (NYSE: AEL) and Prudential Financial (NYSE:PRU) are both finance companies, but which is the superior stock? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their institutional ownership, earnings, risk, analyst recommendations, profitability, dividends and valuation.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Traders sold shares of Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:PRU) on strength during trading hours on Tuesday. $24.30 million flowed into the stock on the tick-up and $56.16 million flowed out of the stock on the tick-down, for a money net flow of $31.86 million out of the stock. Of all companies tracked, Prudential Financial had the 29th highest net out-flow for the day. Prudential Financial traded up $0.50 for the day and closed at $98.75

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    KBC Group NV trimmed its holdings in shares of Prudential Financial Inc (NYSE:PRU) by 11.9% during the second quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 260,023 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 35,173 shares during the period. KBC Group NV owned about 0.06% of Prudential Financial worth $24,315,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Prudential plc (LON:PRU) insider Mark FitzPatrick purchased 11 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, October 8th. The stock was bought at an average cost of GBX 1,684 ($22.00) per share, for a total transaction of £185.24 ($242.05).

Top 5 Insurance Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Topdanmark A/S (TOP)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    TopCoin (CURRENCY:TOP) traded flat against the U.S. dollar during the one day period ending at 7:00 AM E.T. on September 8th. In the last seven days, TopCoin has traded flat against the U.S. dollar. TopCoin has a total market capitalization of $0.00 and $0.00 worth of TopCoin was traded on exchanges in the last day. One TopCoin coin can now be bought for about $0.0008 or 0.00000010 BTC on major cryptocurrency exchanges.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    TopCoin (CURRENCY:TOP) traded down 15.4% against the dollar during the 1-day period ending at 7:00 AM E.T. on June 21st. During the last seven days, TopCoin has traded up 4% against the dollar. TopCoin has a market cap of $0.00 and approximately $123.00 worth of TopCoin was traded on exchanges in the last day. One TopCoin coin can currently be bought for about $0.0010 or 0.00000015 BTC on popular exchanges.

Top 5 Insurance Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Principal Financial Group Inc(PFG)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Logan Wallace]

    ING Groep NV boosted its stake in Principal Financial Group Inc (NYSE:PFG) by 7.8% during the 1st quarter, HoldingsChannel.com reports. The institutional investor owned 27,524 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after purchasing an additional 1,991 shares during the period. ING Groep NV’s holdings in Principal Financial Group were worth $1,676,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Principal Financial Group (PFG)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Glenmede Trust Co. NA cut its holdings in Principal Financial Group Inc (NYSE:PFG) by 61.1% in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 235,266 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 369,372 shares during the period. Glenmede Trust Co. NA owned 0.08% of Principal Financial Group worth $12,458,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Birchcliff Energy (BIR) PT Lowered to C$7.00 at TD Securities

Birchcliff Energy (TSE:BIR) had its target price trimmed by TD Securities from C$7.50 to C$7.00 in a research report report published on Friday morning. The firm currently has an action list buy rating on the oil and natural gas company’s stock.

BIR has been the topic of several other research reports. Canaccord Genuity dropped their target price on shares of Birchcliff Energy from C$6.50 to C$4.25 in a research note on Thursday, January 10th. GMP Securities dropped their target price on shares of Birchcliff Energy from C$7.25 to C$6.25 in a research note on Friday, November 16th. Raymond James dropped their target price on shares of Birchcliff Energy from C$7.25 to C$7.00 in a research note on Wednesday, January 9th. Royal Bank of Canada dropped their target price on shares of Birchcliff Energy from C$6.00 to C$4.00 in a research note on Tuesday, January 8th. Finally, Eight Capital upped their target price on shares of Birchcliff Energy from C$4.50 to C$4.75 in a research note on Thursday. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a hold rating, four have issued a buy rating and one has given a strong buy rating to the stock. The company presently has an average rating of Buy and a consensus target price of C$6.15.

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Shares of TSE BIR opened at C$3.55 on Friday. The company has a market capitalization of $943.98 million and a PE ratio of 18.21. Birchcliff Energy has a 52-week low of C$2.57 and a 52-week high of C$5.45. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 40.06, a quick ratio of 0.68 and a current ratio of 0.86.

Birchcliff Energy Company Profile

Birchcliff Energy Ltd., an intermediate oil and gas company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, light oil, and natural gas liquids in Western Canada. The company holds interests in the Montney/Doig resource play, as well as other natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids assets located in the Peace River Arch area of Alberta.

Recommended Story: Stock Symbols and CUSIP Explained

Analyst Recommendations for Birchcliff Energy (TSE:BIR)

Monday, February 18, 2019

Top buy and sell ideas by Ashwani Gujral, Sudarshan Sukhani, Mitessh Thakkar for short term

Nifty closed 0.2 percent lower, continuing downtrend for sixth consecutive sessions. It lost 2 percent during the week. Discouraging Q3 numbers along with rising oil prices, FII outflow and uncertainty over trade war talks weighed on sentiment.

The index registered a bearish candle on daily and weekly charts, which resembles a hammer and bearish belt hold pattern, respectively.

According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,634.6, followed by 10,544.8. If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,800 and then 10,875.6.

The Nifty Bank index closed at 26,794.25, down 176.35 points on February 15. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 26,609.63, followed by 26,425.06. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 27,004.33, followed by 27,214.47.

related news Nomura raises Ipca Labs price target on hope of strong earnings growth ahead Coal India, ACC among 6 'pigs' that CLSA feels can expand your piggy bank

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, top market experts recommend which stocks to bet on for good returns:

Ashwani Gujral of ashwanigujral.com

Buy Divis Labs with a stop loss of Rs 1600, target of Rs 1665

Buy Reliance Industries with a stop loss of Rs 1230, target of Rs 1265

Buy Rural Electrification Corporation with a stop loss of Rs 118, target of Rs 126

Sell Raymond with a stop loss of Rs 691, target of Rs 670

Sell HPCL with a stop loss of Rs 221, target of Rs 206

Disclosure: Reliance Industries Ltd. is the sole beneficiary of Independent Media Trust which controls Network18 Media & Investments Ltd.

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com

Buy Divis Labs with stop loss at Rs 1600 and target of Rs 1650

Buy HCL Tech with stop loss at Rs 1040 and target of Rs 1080

Buy Interglobe Aviation with stop loss at Rs 1130 and target of Rs 1190

Sell BEML with stop loss at Rs 785 and target of Rs 745

Sell Godrej Consumer with stop loss at Rs 670 and target of Rs 650

Mitessh Thakkar of mitesshthakkar.com

Sell Colgate Palmolive with a stop loss of Rs 1250 and target of Rs 1200

Buy HCL Tech with a stop loss of Rs 1048 and target of Rs 1080

Sell Godrej Consumer around Rs 668 with stop loss of Rs 681 and target of Rs 645

Sell Pidilite Industries below Rs 1090 with stop loss of Rs 1102 and target of Rs 1060

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com/CNBC-TV18 are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.​ First Published on Feb 18, 2019 08:23 am

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019

tags:CLB,GPRK,ERF,GEL,FELP,NDRO,TTI,PER,MPO,LPI,

Diamondback Energy (FANG) delivered another stellar EPS report last week, beating the consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue came in $40 million above expectations and EPS of $1.64/share beat by a nickel. Despite the strong results, shares dropped $6 (4.6%) on Friday due supposedly to disappointment with the conference call.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Core Laboratories N.V.(CLB)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Core Laboratories (CLB)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By ]

    America's oil renaissance is powered almost exclusively by technology, as companies like Schlumberger (SLB) and Core Labs (CLB) are breathing new life into once forgotten wells. Nucor (NUE) has a similar leadership position in the steel industry thanks to technology, and that company will only benefit more that President Trump's tariffs put the market on a more level playing field.

  • [By Todd Campbell]

    In the years since oil prices plunged from their $100-plus per barrel levels of 2014, many energy industry stocks have struggled -- but now, they may be set to rebound. Economic growth worldwide and Middle Eastern production cuts have resulted in a more than doubling of crude oil prices since early 2016; if they remain near current levels or head higher, now could be the perfect time to add Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES), Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO), and Core Labs (NYSE:CLB) to your portfolio.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Geopark Ltd(GPRK)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed their buy rating on shares of Geopark (NYSE:GPRK) in a research note published on Tuesday morning.

    “We expect the Street to raise its estimates once again on the back of these strong results.”,” the firm’s analyst wrote.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on GeoPark (GPRK)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Lonestar Resources US (NYSE: GPRK) and GeoPark (NYSE:GPRK) are both small-cap oils/energy companies, but which is the superior stock? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their analyst recommendations, profitability, earnings, dividends, valuation, risk and institutional ownership.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Enerplus Corporation(ERF)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    Enerplus (TSE:ERF) (NYSE:ERF) had its target price hoisted by CIBC from C$19.00 to C$20.00 in a research note published on Friday morning.

    Other research analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. CSFB upped their price objective on shares of Enerplus from C$17.00 to C$20.00 in a report on Friday, April 13th. GMP Securities upped their price objective on shares of Enerplus from C$17.00 to C$18.00 in a report on Thursday, March 1st. Barclays upped their price objective on shares of Enerplus from C$18.00 to C$20.00 in a report on Monday, February 26th. Canaccord Genuity upped their price objective on shares of Enerplus from C$16.50 to C$17.00 in a report on Monday, February 26th. Finally, Desjardins upped their price objective on shares of Enerplus from C$16.00 to C$17.50 in a report on Monday, February 26th. Seven equities research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, The stock has an average rating of Buy and an average price target of C$18.29.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Enerplus (ERF)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Enerplus (ERF)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    Enerplus (NYSE:ERF) (TSE:ERF) – Stock analysts at National Bank Financial reduced their FY2018 earnings estimates for Enerplus in a research note issued on Thursday, May 3rd. National Bank Financial analyst T. Wood now forecasts that the oil and natural gas company will earn $1.13 per share for the year, down from their previous estimate of $1.27. National Bank Financial also issued estimates for Enerplus’ FY2019 earnings at $1.96 EPS.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Genesis Energy, L.P.(GEL)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Genesis Energy, L.P. common stock (GEL)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Genesis Energy (GEL)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Lisa Levin] Companies Reporting Before The Bell Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $1.96 per share on revenue of $3.46 billion. Aon plc (NYSE: AON) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2.8 per share on revenue of $2.93 billion. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AXL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.81 per share on revenue of $1.75 billion. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $9.27 billion. LifePoint Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: LPNT) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $1.13 per share on revenue of $1.62 billion. V.F. Corporation (NYSE: VFC) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.65 per share on revenue of $2.90 billion. Newell Brands Inc. (NYSE: NWL) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $3.05 billion. Titan International, Inc. (NYSE: TWI) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.04 per share on revenue of $407.27 million. Boise Cascade Company (NYSE: BCC) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.45 per share on revenue of $1.09 billion. Cheniere Energy, Inc. (NYSE: LNG) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.39 per share on revenue of $1.59 billion. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBOE) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $1.24 per share on revenue of $308.05 million. ITT Inc. (NYSE: ITT) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.73 per share on revenue of $683.96 million. Fred's, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) is expected to report quarterly loss at $0.19 per share on revenue of $551.00 million. Virtu Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: VIRT) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.52 per share on revenue of $288.31 million. Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE: CQP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.38 billion. Genesis Energy, L.P

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Foresight Energy LP(FELP)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    News articles about Foresight Energy (NYSE:FELP) have been trending somewhat negative recently, according to Accern Sentiment Analysis. Accern identifies positive and negative press coverage by analyzing more than twenty million news and blog sources in real time. Accern ranks coverage of public companies on a scale of negative one to one, with scores closest to one being the most favorable. Foresight Energy earned a coverage optimism score of -0.08 on Accern’s scale. Accern also gave media stories about the energy company an impact score of 49.7617312910306 out of 100, meaning that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the company’s share price in the near term.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Press coverage about Foresight Energy (NYSE:FELP) has been trending somewhat positive this week, Accern Sentiment reports. The research firm identifies positive and negative press coverage by monitoring more than twenty million blog and news sources in real time. Accern ranks coverage of companies on a scale of -1 to 1, with scores nearest to one being the most favorable. Foresight Energy earned a news sentiment score of 0.00 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned press coverage about the energy company an impact score of 49.1393651374458 out of 100, meaning that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the stock’s share price in the near future.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Foresight Energy (FELP)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Foresight Energy (NYSE:FELP) was upgraded by analysts at Zacks Investment Research from a strong sell rating to a hold rating. According to Zacks, “Foresight Energy Partners LP is a producer and marketer of thermal coal. It operates four underground mining complexes, all in the Illinois Basin region of the United States. The Company’s mining complexes consist of: Williamson Energy, LLC, Sugar Camp Energy, LLC, Hillsboro Energy, LLC and Macoupin Energy, LLC. It markets and sells its coal to a diverse customer base including electric utility and industrial companies in the eastern United States, as well as the seaborne thermal coal market. Foresight Energy Partners LP is based in St. Louis, Missouri. “

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Foresight Energy (NYSE:FELP) released its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday. The energy company reported ($0.15) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.07) by ($0.08), reports. Foresight Energy had a negative net margin of 18.78% and a negative return on equity of 3.93%.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Enduro Royalty Trust(NDRO)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Check out these big penny stock gainers and losers

    Losers Jounce Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNCE) fell 32.5 percent to $11.92 in pre-market trading. Jounce Therapeutics reported that data from ongoing ICONIC trial of JTX-2011 will be presented at the ASCO. Acxiom Corporation (NASDAQ: ACXM) fell 10.7 percent to $24.60 in pre-market trading. Acxiom reported stronger-than-expected results for its fourth quarter, but issued weak FY19 guidance. American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ: APEI) shares fell 10.7 percent to $35 in pre-market trading. Enduro Royalty Trust (NYSE: NDRO) shares fell 8.5 percent to $3.25 in pre-market trading after tumbling 10.76 percent on Wednesday. NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTES) fell 8.3 percent to $244.00 in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 results. Aircastle Limited (NYSE: AYR) fell 7.2 percent to $21.30 in pre-market trading after announcing 7.9 million secondary offering of common shares. Boxlight Corporation (NASDAQ: BOXL) shares fell 5.6 percent to $9.29 in pre-market trading after rising 2.29percent on Wednesday. Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: BCLI) shares fell 5.3 percent to $3.93 in pre-market trading after rising 5.60 percent on Wednesday. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) fell 4 percent to $43.40 in pre-market trading. Cisco reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company sees fourth quarter earnings in the range of 68 cents-70 cents with sales growth of 4-6 percent. Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK) fell 3.2 percent to $88.45 in pre-market trading after the company reported downbeat results for its second quarter. Comps were down 0.1 percent in the quarter. The company sees third-quarter comps coming in flat to up 1 percent. Children's Place, Inc. (
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Tetra Technologies, Inc.(TTI)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on TETRA Technologies (TTI)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Shares of TETRA Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:TTI) have earned a consensus recommendation of “Hold” from the fourteen analysts that are covering the company, MarketBeat.com reports. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, seven have given a hold rating and five have issued a buy rating on the company. The average 1 year price objective among analysts that have issued a report on the stock in the last year is $5.71.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Dimensional Fund Advisors LP raised its holdings in shares of TETRA Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:TTI) by 10.2% during the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 7,583,243 shares of the oil and gas company’s stock after purchasing an additional 702,910 shares during the period. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP owned 6.04% of TETRA Technologies worth $33,746,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: SandRidge Permian Trust(PER)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    Media coverage about SandRidge Permian Trust (NYSE:PER) has been trending somewhat positive this week, according to Accern. Accern rates the sentiment of news coverage by reviewing more than 20 million news and blog sources in real time. Accern ranks coverage of public companies on a scale of -1 to 1, with scores closest to one being the most favorable. SandRidge Permian Trust earned a coverage optimism score of 0.04 on Accern’s scale. Accern also gave news headlines about the oil and gas producer an impact score of 46.3601951962152 out of 100, indicating that recent news coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an impact on the stock’s share price in the near future.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Midstates Petroleum Company, Inc.(MPO)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Joseph Griffin]

    Midstates Petroleum Company Inc (NYSE:MPO) shares reached a new 52-week low during trading on Wednesday . The stock traded as low as $11.50 and last traded at $11.58, with a volume of 2648 shares changing hands. The stock had previously closed at $12.02.

  • [By Shane Hupp]

    These are some of the news articles that may have effected Accern’s analysis:

    Get Midstates Petroleum alerts: Centerbridge Credit Partners M Sells 109,893 Shares of Midstates Petroleum (MPO) Stock (americanbankingnews.com) Midstates Petroleum (MPO) Major Shareholder Centerbridge Credit Partners M Sells 171,200 Shares (americanbankingnews.com) Midstates Petroleum (MPO) CAO Richard Wayne Mccullough Sells 3,170 Shares (americanbankingnews.com) Midstates Petroleum (MPO) Director Michael Reddin Purchases 10,100 Shares (americanbankingnews.com) Midstates Petroleum (MPO) CEO David J. Sambrooks Acquires 15,300 Shares (americanbankingnews.com)

    A number of research firms recently commented on MPO. TheStreet downgraded shares of Midstates Petroleum from a “c-” rating to a “d” rating in a research report on Wednesday, March 14th. ValuEngine downgraded shares of Midstates Petroleum from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Thursday, March 1st.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    News stories about Midstates Petroleum (NYSE:MPO) have been trending somewhat positive on Tuesday, Accern reports. The research group identifies negative and positive press coverage by analyzing more than twenty million news and blog sources in real-time. Accern ranks coverage of public companies on a scale of negative one to positive one, with scores nearest to one being the most favorable. Midstates Petroleum earned a news impact score of 0.25 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned headlines about the energy producer an impact score of 45.5617713297556 out of 100, meaning that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the stock’s share price in the near future.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    News coverage about Midstates Petroleum (NYSE:MPO) has trended somewhat positive on Tuesday, Accern reports. Accern scores the sentiment of press coverage by analyzing more than twenty million blog and news sources in real-time. Accern ranks coverage of publicly-traded companies on a scale of negative one to positive one, with scores nearest to one being the most favorable. Midstates Petroleum earned a news sentiment score of 0.25 on Accern’s scale. Accern also gave news headlines about the energy producer an impact score of 46.8675209319962 out of 100, indicating that recent press coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the stock’s share price in the next several days.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    Midstates Petroleum Company Inc (NYSE:MPO) shares hit a new 52-week low during trading on Tuesday . The company traded as low as $11.23 and last traded at $11.31, with a volume of 1700 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at $11.63.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    News stories about Midstates Petroleum (NYSE:MPO) have been trending somewhat positive this week, according to Accern. Accern scores the sentiment of media coverage by monitoring more than 20 million news and blog sources. Accern ranks coverage of companies on a scale of negative one to positive one, with scores nearest to one being the most favorable. Midstates Petroleum earned a news impact score of 0.24 on Accern’s scale. Accern also assigned press coverage about the energy producer an impact score of 47.0338113974119 out of 100, indicating that recent media coverage is somewhat unlikely to have an effect on the stock’s share price in the next several days.

Top 10 Energy Stocks To Own For 2019: Laredo Petroleum, Inc.(LPI)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matthew DiLallo]

    Oil has continued its remarkable rise this year, rallying another 10%, to more than $65 a barrel in the U.S. That rebound has taken most oil stocks up with it. However, a handful managed to lose ground this year, including Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI), Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO), and Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC), which are all down double digits. That sell-off makes them worth a closer look.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Laredo Petroleum Inc (NYSE:LPI) fell 8.4% on Friday . The company traded as low as $9.27 and last traded at $8.50. 7,557,423 shares traded hands during mid-day trading, an increase of 111% from the average session volume of 3,574,226 shares. The stock had previously closed at $9.28.

  • [By Ethan Ryder]

    These are some of the news headlines that may have effected Accern Sentiment Analysis’s scoring:

    Get Laredo Petroleum alerts: Q2 2018 EPS Estimates for Laredo Petroleum Inc (LPI) Reduced by Analyst (americanbankingnews.com) Laredo Working to Restart Permian Production Shuttered Following Tank Fire (naturalgasintel.com) OPEC Losing Control After Libya Outages (finance.yahoo.com) Laredo Petroleum reaffirms FY 2018 production view after storage tank fire (seekingalpha.com) Laredo Petroleum (LPI) Provides Update on Fire Reported at Tank Battery in Glasscock County, Texas (streetinsider.com)

    LPI stock traded down $0.15 during trading on Thursday, reaching $9.37. 204,560 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 4,884,005. Laredo Petroleum has a twelve month low of $7.41 and a twelve month high of $13.46. The company has a market cap of $2.24 billion, a PE ratio of 15.62, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.79 and a beta of 1.16. The company has a quick ratio of 0.77, a current ratio of 0.77 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Laredo Petroleum Inc (NYSE:LPI) dropped 5.9% on Monday . The stock traded as low as $7.95 and last traded at $7.96. Approximately 3,201,738 shares were traded during trading, a decline of 16% from the average daily volume of 3,808,352 shares. The stock had previously closed at $8.46.

Zacks: Broadwind Energy Inc. (BWEN) Given Average Recommendation of “Strong Buy” by Anal

Broadwind Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:BWEN) has been given a consensus broker rating score of 1.00 (Strong Buy) from the one brokers that provide coverage for the stock, Zacks Investment Research reports. One research analyst has rated the stock with a strong buy rating.

Brokers have set a 12-month consensus price target of $3.50 for the company and are forecasting that the company will post ($0.27) earnings per share for the current quarter, according to Zacks. Zacks has also given Broadwind Energy an industry rank of 100 out of 255 based on the ratings given to its competitors.

Get Broadwind Energy alerts:

A number of equities analysts recently issued reports on the company. Zacks Investment Research raised Broadwind Energy from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $1.75 price target for the company in a report on Wednesday, January 23rd. ValuEngine raised Broadwind Energy from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a report on Friday, November 2nd. Finally, Roth Capital assumed coverage on Broadwind Energy in a report on Thursday, December 20th. They issued a “buy” rating and a $6.00 price target for the company.

BWEN traded down $0.02 on Thursday, reaching $1.37. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 50,400 shares, compared to its average volume of 20,380. The company has a quick ratio of 0.39, a current ratio of 0.89 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05. The company has a market capitalization of $22.22 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of -2.49 and a beta of 1.67. Broadwind Energy has a fifty-two week low of $1.15 and a fifty-two week high of $3.28.

An institutional investor recently raised its position in Broadwind Energy stock. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP grew its position in Broadwind Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:BWEN) by 6.9% in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 442,786 shares of the industrial products company’s stock after acquiring an additional 28,418 shares during the quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP owned about 2.86% of Broadwind Energy worth $1,045,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period. 41.25% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Broadwind Energy Company Profile

Broadwind Energy, Inc provides products to the energy, mining, and infrastructure sector customers primarily in the United States. It operates through three segments: Towers and Heavy Fabrications, Gearing, and Process Systems. The Towers and Heavy Fabrications segment manufactures towers that are designed for various megawatt wind turbines primarily serving wind turbine manufacturers; and specialty fabrications and specialty weldments for mining and other industrial customers.

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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Thursday’s Vital Data: Eli Lilly, Twitter and Freeport-McMoRan

U.S. stock futures are trading higher again this morning, continuing this relief rally. In premarket action, the futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 0.46% and S&P 500 are higher by 0.39%. Nasdaq-100 have added 0.52% to yesterday’s gains.

stock market todaystock market todayIn the options pits, call buyers were busier than bears yesterday. Markets meandered higher while waiting for some geo-economic news. We still need President Donald Trump to actually sign the agreement to avert a U.S. government shutdown. This rally could disappear quickly if news on that front disappoints. Meanwhile, Wall Street still has one foot out the door. Investors will sell first and ask questions later. Regardless, the action was bullish since we had 18.9 million calls and 15.2 million puts during the session.

Markets seem on edge, even when in the green. This is the byproduct of being in headline trading mode while we await news from the tariff talks between the U.S. and China. Nevertheless, the CBOE single-session equity put/call volume ratio remain stable 0.57 versus the the 10-day moving average of 0.62. Sentiment remains positive in spite of the caution.

Options activity was bullish on Wednesday. This is normal as fear levels abate. Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) was in the news and spiked 4% and the action was also bullish in the options. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) had an even bigger rally, up almost 7% yesterday. The appetite for options was voracious, suggesting more potential to come. Finally, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) wasn’t as exciting on the Wednesday scoreboard, but its options action made up for it.

Thursday’s Vital Data: Eli Lilly (LLY), Twitter (TWTR) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)Thursday’s Vital Data: Eli Lilly (LLY), Twitter (TWTR) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

Let’s take a closer look:

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Eli Lilly stock might be ready to make a big move. This week the options have been active and the calls have overwhelmed the puts. Yesterday LLY options traded 727 times its daily average volume. While the split favors the bears slightly, it’s even enough to leave the bias neutral.

Usually when options get to be this active, it means that there is an imminent move in the stock. This much action in it above the normal levels is unusual. Such a tense situation will resolve itself soon, but unfortunately we don’t know the direction of the breakout.

So we rely on the charts and the levels to tell us when to go long or short. Eli Lilly stock is at all time highs so clearly it’s having a great year. Shorter term, it is stuck between $120.30 and $118.10 per share. A breach of either side of this range will carry momentum in that direction. The secondary targets from those edges are $121.40 versus $117.05. Those, too, are potential catalyst levels. It is best to trade the triggers rather than anticipate the moves.


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Twitter (TWTR)

Twitter reported earnings recently, and the stock collapsed more than 10% on the headline. This was a shame, since TWTR stock was in the middle of a breakout from $34 per share. Luckily for bulls, on Wednesday it spiked sharply on the 13-F news that Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has a new 5.6% stake in the stock. Investors chased the stock up but closed off the highs.

So it is no surprise to see Twitter stock options trade 138 times their daily average. Moreover, 70% of the Wednesday options were calls to only 30% puts. It is clear that traders now expect a rebound from the earnings rout.

Before chasing, it is important that it maintains the short-term higher-lows trend. So losing $30.30 would cause a deflation in the immediate rally. Conversely, a breach above $31.82 would trigger a buy signal to fill the earnings gap and target $34 per share. It would be a tall order to expect much more of it here.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

FCX reported earnings in January and the stock fell more than 15% on its heels. Since then, it completely recovered from it. But there might be even more good news and the options markets know it.

On Wednesday, FCX options traded 204 times their daily average. More to the point, the mix was 76% calls to only 24% puts and this suggests a very bullish bias. The technicals point to much more upside off the breach of $12.10 per share.

If the bulls can continue past $12.30 it could continue on its way to $13 or higher. There are resistance areas in between but this breakout has momentum. The concern from here that this stock moves fast but in both directions. And this fast recovery from earnings left a big gap below that beacons.

Tight stops are a must when trading FCX stock. Those who are in it for an investment should trade it according to their fundamental opinions of it. I recently wrote a bullish article about the upside potential in FCX.

Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him as @racernic on Twitter and 

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Trupanion Inc (TRUP) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Image source: The Motley Fool.

Trupanion Inc  (NASDAQ:TRUP)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 13, 2019, 4:30 p.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings and welcome (inaudible) Fourth Quarter and 2018 (inaudible) this time all (inaudible) (Operator Instructions) This conference (inaudible). I would now like to turn to your host Laura Bainbridge, (inaudible) Relations.

Laura Bainbridge -- Investor Relation Contact Officer

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Trupanion Fourth Quarter 2018 Financial Results Conference Call. Participating on today's call are Darryl Rawlings, Chief Executive Officer; and Tricia Plouf, Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during today's conference call we will make certain forward-looking statements regarding the future operations, opportunities and financial performance of Trupanion within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

These statements involve a high degree of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. A detailed discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties are included in our earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website, as well as the company's most recent reports on forms 10-K and 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Today's presentation contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that management uses to evaluate the company's performance, including without limitation, fixed expenses, variable expenses, adjusted operating income, acquisition cost, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. When we use the term adjusted operating income or margin, it is intended to refer to our non-GAAP operating income or margin before new pet acquisition. Unless otherwise noted, margins and expenses will be presented on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes stock-based compensation expense and depreciation expense.

These non-GAAP measures are an addition to, and not a substitute for, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with the U.S. GAAP. Investors are encouraged to review the reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP results, which can be found in today's press release or on Trupanion's Investor Relations website under the Quarterly Earnings tab.

Lastly, I would like to remind everyone that today's call is also available via webcast on Trupanion's Investor Relations website. A replay will also be available on the site.

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Darryl.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thanks, Laura. Good afternoon, everyone. 2018 was another consistent year at Trupanion. Revenue was up 25%, adjusted operating income grew 36% and we calculated our internal rates of return on our pet acquisition spend to be on the high end of our 30% to 40% target for an average pet.

Every year and for the foreseeable future, our goals are to grow revenue 20% to 30% year-over-year, expand our adjusted operating income and reinvest as much of it as possible within our target internal rates of return of 30% to 40%.

Achieving these three measures, we'll continuing to build the moats around our business and maintaining our culture of the markers of a successful year. And by these counts, 2018 was another good year. In 2018, we also moved the ball forward on our five key strategic initiatives, setting us up well for the long term. In some areas, we're further ahead than others, but, overall, I'm pleased with our progress.

Turning to our results in greater detail. 2018 revenues were $304 million and we ended the year with over 520,000 total enrolled pets. The pace of our pet acquisition accelerated in 2018 a trend that continued into the fourth quarter. Pet additions were particularly strong in Canada, where we've been operating for nearly 20 years.

Our accelerated growth in Canada, while maintaining strong retention rates, gives us continued confidence about our future in the U.S. market. Throughout 2018, our subscription business benefited from our strategic initiatives to grow same-store sales and improve conversion rates. In the fourth quarter specifically, growth benefited from the increased lead volume more than conversion.

Adjusted operating income or our profits from our existing book of pets was over $30 million. The pet acquisition team spent approximately $24 million of this to enroll over 120,000 new subscription pets.

As a reminder, we focus on the estimated internal rate of return of an average pet, when evaluating the effectiveness of our pet acquisition spend. We calculate this internal rate of return by understanding our cost to acquire an average new pet, and the operating profit that we anticipate will be generated over the pet's entire life.

As many of you will recall, I first discussed this concept in my 2014 annual shareholder letter and provided more detail again in 2017. We continue to believe this approach is the right way to think about the effectiveness of pet acquisition spending and a more precise measure than LVP, since it includes both our fixed expenses as well as a capital charge.

In 2018, we scaled our adjusted operating margin to 10.5%, making progress toward our long-term target of 15%. As adjusted operating income continues to grow, the challenge will be, how to continue to deploy this discretionary capital at our targeted internal rates of return.

We're encouraged by the progress the pet acquisition team made on this front in 2018, and believe the work we've done sets us up well for 2019.

In 2019, we aim to grow adjusted operating income to $40 million to $45 million. With these investable dollars, our pet acquisition team will continue to invest in our core channels, driving leads and improving conversions.

While our core channels will comprise the majority of our 2019 spend, we intend to be more aggressive in our test spend, which will include newer less proven tactics. These tests are important to our growth in future years and will remain a key part of our long-term strategy. We also plan to double down on our core competencies and chase our goal of Nirvana.

In 2019, we intend to add additional headcount and resources in departments found in both our fixed and variable expenses. Departments receiving significant investments in 2019, include our actuarial and data, legal and regulatory, software and IT, and our member experience teams.

I spent much of my time today talking about our subscription business. As a reminder, through our other business segment, we utilize our assets and expertise to add additional pets and revenue from business-to-business contracts and relationships. There will always be competing products in the marketplace, targeting alternative price points are being offered in alternative channels. Being involved with these other products gives us the freedom to remain focused on our high-quality medical insurance offered through the veterinary channel or sharing in the success of the broader category.

In addition to the near term, it is important that we are looking out five years, 10 years and 20 years. We need to ensure that we are expanding them both and building long-term cost-effective lead sources that will propel the growth of Trupanion for the decades ahead.

As a reminder, our moats or our Territory Partners and the face-to-face relationships they've build with veterinarians; our software, which enables our category-leading customer experience; and the data we have amassed to offer our value proposition fairly. Additionally, we will continue to invest in new products, channels and geographies.

We've made a number of those investments in 2018 and we look forward to updating you on our progress at our upcoming annual shareholder meeting. This year, our annual shareholder meeting will be held on June 6, again, at our Seattle headquarters.

Our team and culture are critical to our long-term success. This annual event is a terrific opportunity to meet the people behind Trupanion and gain access and insights from our key business leaders. Specific updates on our five key strategic initiatives will be discussed as well as a lengthy Q&A with the team. Additional details would be forthcoming on our Investor Relations website.

And with that I'll hand the call over to Trish.

Tricia Plouf -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Darryl and good afternoon everyone. As Darryl covered many of our 2018 financial highlights I'll focus my commentary on our fourth quarter performance, as well as provide our revenue outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2019.

Revenue for the fourth quarter was $82.6 million, up 24% year-over-year and led by strong pet enrollment in both our subscription and other business segments. Total enrolled pets increased 23% year-over-year to over 521,000 pets as of December 31.

Subscription revenue was $70.9 million in the quarter up 20% year-over-year. Total enrolled subscription pets increased 16% year-over-year to over 430,000 pets as of December 31. Pet growth within our subscription business benefited from increased leads in our core veterinary channel.

Monthly average revenue per pet for the quarter was $55.15, an increase of 4% year-over-year. In local currency, monthly average revenue per pet increased by 5% from the prior year for our U.S. members which is inline with our historical average of 5% to 6%.

In Canada, monthly average revenue per pet increased by 4% from the prior year for our members. Once again we have had accelerated growth in certain Canadian subcategories which are now more accurately priced to our target 70% value proposition, but have a lower average ARPU. You'll recall, we highlighted these trends last quarter.

Average monthly retention was 98.6% compared to 98.63% in the prior year period and ahead of our 10-year historical average of 98.5%. We're pleased to deliver relatively consistent rates of retention considering the continued acceleration in new pet enrollments through 2018.

As we have discussed, cancellations are highest in the first 90 days following a pet's enrollment which typically impacts retention rates in periods of accelerated new pet growth.

Our other business revenue which generally is comprised of our revenue that has a B2B component totaled $11.7 million for the quarter, an increase of 55% year-over-year. Year-over-year growth in our other business segment reflects an increase in the number of pets enrolled in this segment.

Total enrolled pets in this segment was approximately 90,500 at year-end compared to 51,500 at the end of the prior year. We currently estimate revenue growth in this segment to be between 20% to 25% in 2019. Subscription gross margin was 19% in the quarter within our annual target of 18% to 21%.

Total gross margin was 17% which includes our lower margin other business segment. For the quarter fixed expenses represented 6% of total revenue down from 8% in the prior year period, reflecting scale in our technology and general and administrative departments.

During the quarter, we recognized a full quarter's benefit from the purchase of our home office building in Seattle. Adjusted operating income totaled $9.1 million in the fourth quarter a 45% increase from the prior year period.

Net loss for the quarter was $0.3 million. As a percentage of revenue, adjusted operating margin expanded approximately 160 basis points year-over-year to 11%. We are pleased with the expansion in this margin particularly in the second half of the year.

Turning now to our acquisition costs. In the fourth quarter, we spent $6.6 million to acquire approximately 32,000 new subscription pets. This compares to the prior year period in which we spent $5.6 million to acquire approximately 27,000 subscription pets. We continue to be encouraged by our ability to deploy greater sums of our adjusted operating income to accelerate new pet enrollments at strong internal rates of return. Free cash flow after acquiring these pets was $2.6 million.

Operating cash flow in the quarter was $3.7 million, up from $3 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.6 million for the quarter, up from $0.7 million in the prior year period. Our net loss was $0.3 million or a $0.01 loss per basic and diluted share compared to a net loss of $0.8 million or a $0.03 loss per basic and diluted share in the prior year period. At December 31, we had $81.1 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and $12.9 million of long-term debt.

I'll now turn to our outlook for the first quarter and full year 2019. For the first quarter of 2019, revenue is expected to be in the range of $85.5 million to $86.5 million representing 23% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Revenue for the full year 2019 is expected to be in the range of $368 million to $374 million, representing 22% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Embedded in our revenue guidance for 2019 is ARPU growth in line with historical averages of 5% to 6%.

Also, please keep in mind that our revenue projections are subject to conversion rate fluctuations between the U.S. and Canadian currencies. For our first quarter and full year guidance, we used a 76% conversion rate in our projections which was the approximate rate at the end of January.

Thank you for your time today. And I will now turn the call back over to Darryl.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thanks, Trish. We spent the bulk of our commentary today on our results. Before we open the call up for questions, I want to take a step back to briefly remind you of our mission and the reason that we exist. At our core, we want to help the pets we all love receive the best veterinary care possible. Pet owners love their pets. Responsible loving pet owners understand how to take care of them. We exercise them, play with them, feed them high-quality food and make sure they receive preventative healthcare. But where pet owners' struggle is how to budget for the cost of unexpected veterinary care when and if their pet becomes sick or injured.

First, pet owners don't know whether the pet is going to be lucky or unlucky. And second, the variance in cost between a lucky and unlucky pet is significant. Trupanion exist to help solve this problem. We offer pet owners the ability to budget for this care through a high-quality medical coverage provided for the life of their pet. Every day, we have nearly 600 pet passionate team members working in support of our mission. On site, you'll find over 200 dogs and cats reminding us why we come to work each day and the importance of what we do.

We are still in the very early innings of building Trupanion in this category. We are committed to building this business in a long-term and sustainable way. We'll continue to deepen our competitive moats and look forward to keeping you appraised of our progress. The first half of 2019 will provide several opportunities to do so. In just a few weeks, we'll be participating in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Animal Health Summit in New York followed by the Raymond James Institutional Conference in Orlando.

As in past years, we'll be hosting an open Q&A session to follow the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting on May 4th in Omaha. Berkshire Hathaway provides a great opportunity to meet with other long-term minded shareholders. I know we've met many of you there in prior years. And as I highlighted, we look forward to our 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting on June 6th and hope to see many of you there.

And with that, I'll open the call up for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Cooper, Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. I guess I'll start with just one on pet acquisition spend. It looks like you've spend a little bit more in the quarter relative to the prior quarter -- relative to 3Q. I know you had a little bit more success than maybe you expected then but you added still fewer pets on the subscription side this quarter. Just any comment around kind of what the moving parts were? And what you may have done a little bit different in this quarter versus prior would be helpful?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Sure. We mentioned last quarter in Q3 that we pulled back some of our test spending as we are a little bit tentative, but midway through the quarter to make sure that we remain cash flow positive. We kind of loosened that up in Q4 to allow some of that testing during the year. We really focused on kind of the internal rate of return for the entire year and kind of came in right at our target, actually on the high-end of our target.

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then as we think about 2019, I think you've mentioned maybe a little bit more aggressive on some of those test initiatives. Are there any in particular you can point us to? Or anything that you saw in 2018 that makes you feel better about kind of putting the pedal to the metal a little bit harder in that area?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, so at a high level in my opening remarks, I mentioned that -- last year, we had about $32 million in adjusted operating income. And we deployed about $24 million in the pet acquisition spend. In 2019, we expect that we're going to have about between $40 million and $45 million of adjusted operating income. And that's going to give us some opportunity to spend and deploy more capital.

Some of those areas are kind of proven areas and about 70% of our targeted spend is going to be in areas that we've got a high level of visibility, where we have high confidence, and strong internal rates of return, but 20% of what we spend are going to be things that, we have not yet fully optimized, but we see good trends and we have reasonably good visibility and about 10% is going to be kind of on high-level new testing. So I look at focus on those last 20% and 10%, we're going to be spending a lot more new money on conversion rates and using conversion rates both on the direct-to-consumer programs as well as kind of building out some more support mechanisms. That's probably the biggest area of change in 2019 over 2018.

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I will hop back in the queue for now. Appreciate it.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jon Block, Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Jon Block -- Stifel -- Analyst

Great. Thanks guys. Good afternoon. Trish or Darryl, I guess the question is about what's embedded in the guidance? Any details you can give on your gross subscriber thoughts in 2019? And I ask because they can't get a lot more difficult than 2019 versus 2018 than what you saw in 2017. I think you're up against roughly a 20% gross ad comp this year versus what was 4% or 5% in 2017. So, how should we think about that? And is sort of a 10% or 11% gross ad number the right place to be for 2019? And then I've got a follow-up.

Tricia Plouf -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure Jon. I'll give you as much visibility as I can. At a high level, the revenue guidance is based on the visibility that we have right now. If we have the opportunity to be more aggressive as we go through the year, we will do so and keep you updated. When it comes to total subscription enrolled pets, we would expect it to be pretty consistent with what we've seen in 2018 in terms of around that 15% growth level based on our guidance and pretty consistent retention rates as we've seen in 2018 as well which hopefully can help you back into the growth number that we've incorporated into our guidance at this time.

Jon Block -- Stifel -- Analyst

Okay. No, that certainly will help. And then Trish this one might be for you as well. But just relative to my model, the G&A looked a bit high from where we were. Obviously, you bought the building and I thought there would be some savings there and I'm thinking that would run through G&A maybe I'm mistaken. But was there anything that caught in the quarter or is that sort of almost annualized $20 million run rate the right one to use for G&A as we head into 2019?

Tricia Plouf -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I would say absent the building G&A, we would expect to increase modestly year-over-year to support our growth. You're right that we would have expected likely G&A to be more in line with past quarter. It's not a little bit better based on having a full quarter of the building running through. We did have some other expenses in G&A related to particularly accounting audit fees and some other professional services that were a bit of a step-up.

One example of that is this is the first year based on growth of our company we had to do a full external stocks' audit. And that was really weighted toward the back half of the year, particularly in Q4. So, that is the bigger of the expenses that did come through and was more heavily weighted in the fourth quarter to ensure we got through that successfully in the first year.

Jon Block -- Stifel -- Analyst

Okay. And last one for me. Darryl you mentioned a couple times in your prepared remarks that Canada you saw really good growth in and accelerated. I'm just curious if you can pinpoint why you saw that? Where there any particular programs that you initiated or kicked off that helped to accelerate the overall growth in Canada? Thanks guys.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well, the reason we've kind of highlighted Canada, Canada we've been in the market for about 10 years ahead of the U.S. market and it gives us a really good forward look on acquisition growth rates retention rates all of the things that we can foreshadow what 2025 and 2028 is going to look like.

The Canadian business has been consistently growing. It's ticked-up a little bit. I think as we are pricing our subcategories a little bit more accurately that is the biggest area that we've seen a little bit of an increase in certain regions. But otherwise conversion rates and leads across Canada have all been strong.

Jon Block -- Stifel -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Argento, Lake Street Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Mark Argento -- Lake Street Capital Markets -- Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon. Just a couple of quick questions. As we're modeling things out, can you help us better maybe in terms of some of the incremental spend or in terms of dollars, what do you think the incremental spend into the OpEx spend and the people some of the processes, can you help us quantify that, that would be helpful?

And then in terms of the product offering, I know you guys announced recently that you're insuring the pets now at the time of birth or very early on. What does that do to the business? Does that create a bigger opportunity for you guys? Any thoughts around that would be helpful. Thanks.

Tricia Plouf -- Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Mark. In regards to your first question in terms of people and processes, I'll talk about it in two buckets: one is, those related to the member experience and customer care and claims processing; and then the second one will be fixed expenses. When it comes to people and processes, we continue to invest in the member experience within sort of that our gross margin parameters of 18% to 21%.

That being said, as Darryl mentioned, we're really focused on trying to make incremental improvements in Nirvana in 2019. So if we do have the opportunity to incrementally invest in driving that, we likely will do so, and we'll speak more about that as we go through the year. But at a high level, making sure that those expenses grow in line with pets and revenue, so that we can support our members, which is consistent with the past is a priority.

In terms of fixed expenses, we will have a full year of the building benefit going through. Actually, we've mentioned in the past that will be slightly offset by making sure a lot of our teams are appropriately staffed to support our growth, while still driving a scale in fixed expenses.

And then within the pet acquisition team, that is the one that's a little bit more variable. And how much we spend in that area, which we think based on our revenue guidance could be around $30 million to $35 million at that data point. Those teams will grow as gross new pets grow as long as we're within the IRR guardrail.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

And Mark, I think the other question was about us allowing pets to be enrolling at -- starting at the time of birth instead of eight weeks. Main reason we're doing that is to get alignment with breeders and to make sure that we can have the best customer experience for pet owners.

When you enroll somebody as young as possible, it means they don't have any pre-existing conditions. And that we can pay things really fast and quick and easy. So we don't see this as a major growth driver, we see it mostly around improving customer experience.

Mark Argento -- Lake Street Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great. And then just one follow-up. In terms of the non-subscription business, looks like you continue to have success in growing that business. Any thoughts around how that business might grow in 2019? Are you going to onboard additional white label partners there?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

So at a high level kind of the guidance or feedback that Trish gave was that we expect the revenue to grow 20% to 25% for the year. These other areas, we have ongoing conversations. We've got different things that are in the pipeline, but they often take multiple years until we can get to a married state. And often it takes several years after that until it can have any meaningful impact on the company. So although, we're working on it, if there's anything new or exciting that we would change, we'd let the markets know about it at that time.

Mark Argento -- Lake Street Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Penney, Northland Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Good afternoon. This is Greg on for Paul. Thanks for taking my questions. First, are there any updates on the regulatory front? Is there anything that is maybe outside of the normal course of business that you're focused on maybe we should be concerned of?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

No there's no changes on the regulatory front. As a background, we constantly have ongoing dialogue with different regulators. And we're not aware of anything that has any material impact on the business. And if we were, we would let the markets know about it.

I think at the higher level, we have very good strong alignment with regulators. We're trying to help build the category with transparency. The first company to cover congenital hereditary, we're trying to pay quickly and under minutes directly to the hospitals. We're trying to price more accurately by more subcategories and we're targeting higher payout rates. So what our goals are and the goals of the departments of insurance are very well aligned.

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Great. And then just with respect to the other revenue line item, can you just give a little bit more color on your efforts with respect to employee benefits or maybe other notable drivers in that category?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yes, employee benefits is an area that we are building up our muscle on, but we don't see it as having a material growth impact in 2019 although we expect we're going to learn a lot more.

In 2018 and 2017 we've done a lot of testing. In 2019, we'll be taking some of the learnings and trying to implement it, so we can have a better experience for kind of be HR departments and some IT back end. But we don't expect it's going to be a big accelerator, although we think over the next 3, 4, 5 years it could be a interesting place for the category.

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Ellich, Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question.

Kevin Ellich -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

I guess, I want to start off with lifetime value. It looks like it decreased 2.3% year-over-year to $710. I'm not sure, if I missed it Darryl, but did you guys talk about that yet? And could you give us any color as to the fluctuation that we're seeing now?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yes. I mean ARPU is slightly up. So the way you calculate lifetime value, its ARPU, its margin and retention rates. We've got a little bit of a headwind as we've kind of increased the number of hospitals with our software by about 50%. That's about 1% decrease in our adjusted operating margin in a -- for a short period of time. So that's a little bit of a headwind and the other factors are about the same.

So I would expect that we will see modest progress on LVP over the next two to three years. So ARPU will help it go up. I expect retention rates will be relatively the same. Although as Trish mentioned, if we grow really fast our 90-day cancellation puts a little pressure on that.

Kevin Ellich -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then you gave some nice color about the test spend in some of the areas, we should be thinking about. What areas have you seen success in the past? And I guess, give us a little bit more background in terms of the strategic rationale for increasing that test spend?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well what we're doing as a company is building relationships with veterinary clinics and trying to make it so that every time somebody walks into a veterinary clinic, they ask to check in who their medical insurance is with. And then if they have their software, they're able to answer the question the reason we ask is because they pay us directly, making the kind of more normalized. That on its own produces a higher and higher increased number of cost effective leads. But converting leads is always a challenge and will always continue to be a challenge.

So we need to be investing more and more money on when we get those leads how do we convert them and we're using more mobile platforms, we're using more bespoke conversations. And it's a different methods to a different person in a different region. So we're going to be investing more and more money on conversion. And we think there is good opportunity to do that. And outside of that I would really just say on a macro level, our adjusted operating income as I mentioned is expected to go to $40 million to $45 million. We'll be looking at spending $30 million to $35 million within our internal rates of return kind of in the midpoint of our range of 30% to 40%. So we've got more money to go out and test some of those areas.

Kevin Ellich -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Got it. Okay. Yes, that makes sense. Two quick ones for me. Any update on the international expansion? And also how the food initiative is going? And then lastly, I thought there was an 8-K that was filed after the close. Looks like you have a board member who is not standing for reelection this year. Just wanted to see if you have an color as -- that you can provide as to what happened on that front?

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Sure. Let's go international then food and then talk about board. So international, we will likely be issuing fresh policies in Australia over the next two to three months. We're about I would say 60 to 90 days slower than we would have been if you ask me a year ago and has mostly just been getting our ducks on their own paperwork done. Food initiative, we've got a team of people working on it. And we don't have a go-to-market strategy yet. But we're spending a lot of time and energy that team's working on how this impact.

But at the high level there, we believe that if pets eat a high-quality diet that they could have a better health outcome. And if they get a better health outcome, we could share that back with our clients. And then as you mentioned in the 8-K, Chad one of our audit chair is not -- is serving out his term, but will not be standing for reelection. He gave us a heads up about a year ago that he had other time commitments which we brought on Jackie another board member who will be stepping into the audit chair role when Chad steps down.

Kevin Ellich -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Okay. Sounds good. Thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Chen -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question. This is Mike Chen on for Mark. In terms of your five key strategic initiatives, how would you rank the contribution of the initiatives, whether it's Trupanion Express that could result in incremental revenue in 2019 bringing you to the higher end of your guidance range? And then I was also wondering, if you can maybe give an update on Trupanion Express? How many hospitals it's rolled out to and progress with claims automation? Thanks.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Great question. So some of our growth -- accelerated growth in 2018 was driven by same-store sales initiatives and conversion rates. Conversion rates were up year-over-year. As I mentioned in the opening remarks, we're really pleased with that. Q4 was driven more by leads than conversion rates and with a small step down over Q3, but year-over-year up.

If you look at our claims automation, we're really pleased with the progress we're making. We think it's going to improve customer experience. We're going to talk a lot more about that at the shareholder letter -- shareholder meeting.

The other area is our adjusted operating margin, we've made decent progress during the year. That actually helps increase the allowable money that we can spend, because as the margin expands, our payback period shortens, allows us to be more aggressive on pet acquisition spend, while maintaining the same internal rate of return. And that gives a freedom to the team to push a little harder so that definitely helped.

And we'll go -- I plan on going over these in a lot more detail at the shareholder meeting, where the people and the team who are actually executing can talk to the crowd.

Mike Chen -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Cooper, Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Hey, guys. Just one more quick one for me. I know awhile back I think at the shareholder meeting you talked about one region hitting Nirvana. I just wanted to get an update there? Is that sustained through the following quarters? And have you seen more regions reach that and sustain it? Or any sort of upgrade you could give there would be great. Appreciate it.

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

That -- our first region to hit Nirvana is still in Nirvana state, so we're excited. I'm not thrilled, because I can't announce that we have 10 or 20 others, but we've got a road map to work toward.

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And this does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Duration: 54 minutes

Call participants:

Laura Bainbridge -- Investor Relation Contact Officer

Darryl Rawlings -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Tricia Plouf -- Chief Financial Officer

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Jon Block -- Stifel -- Analyst

Mark Argento -- Lake Street Capital Markets -- Analyst

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Kevin Ellich -- Craig-Hallum -- Analyst

Mike Chen -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Andrew Cooper -- Raymond James -- Analyst

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